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| (사진=연합뉴스) |
[Alpha Biz=(Chicago) Reporter Kim Jisun] Shinhan Investment & Securities predicted on the 28th that the local stock market could fall another 6% on a bearish market over the next month as the volatility of U.S. bank stocks intensifies.
According to Shinhan Investment & Securities, the number of deepening sections where U.S. financial stocks' volatility has exceeded 40% since 1990 has been tallied 18 times, except for one-off events.
Except for the 2008 global financial crisis, which led to a dual system crisis, the global stock market generally began to fall about 14 trading days before.
However, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) advanced and European indexes, and the US stock market checked the bottom within 10∼15 trading days after the volatility intensified and shifted upward.
On the other hand, the KOSPI took more than 30 trading days to rebound, and emerging markets failed to break away from the box pattern for 50∼60 trading days.
"The KOSPI's biggest fall in the bear market is around 11∼12%," Shinhan Investment & Securities said. "The KOSPI has recently fallen to 5.6% from its previous high point within 60 days of the SVB crisis."
Shinhan Investment & Securities also predicted, "It took 40∼50 trading days for the KOSPI to rebound in a trend after deepening volatility in the past," adding, "It is difficult for the index to rebound flexibly in a short period of time."
Alphabiz Reporter Kim Jisun(stockmk2020@alphabiz.co.kr)
