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Photo = HiteJinro |
[Alpha Biz= Paul Lee] Seoul, October 2 – NH Investment & Securities announced that despite HiteJinro’s dominant market share, the prolonged downturn in Korea’s liquor market is expected to weigh on earnings. The brokerage maintained a “Buy” rating but lowered its target price from KRW 28,000 to KRW 25,000. HiteJinro shares closed at KRW 19,030 in the previous session.
Q3 Earnings Forecast
Analyst Ju Young-hoon projects HiteJinro’s Q3 2025 consolidated revenue at KRW 679.6 billion and operating profit at KRW 63.1 billion, down 10% year-on-year and slightly below consensus estimates.
Soju Division: Revenue is estimated at KRW 385.0 billion. Despite a decline in domestic alcohol consumption, strong market dominance is expected to support stable soju sales. The analyst noted that overseas sales expansion could accelerate once the company’s new Vietnam plant begins operations in the second half of 2026.
Beer Division: Revenue is projected at KRW 231.8 billion. Although HiteJinro implemented a price increase in May, weak demand continues to dampen performance. Even the government’s consumer support coupon program failed to deliver the expected boost in beer consumption.
Analyst Commentary
Ju stated, “We have revised our earnings forecast downward, reflecting the sustained slowdown in the domestic liquor market. Although HiteJinro continues to defend its leading market share, overall industry weakness is making it difficult to protect revenue.”
He added, “Post-COVID, the reduction in company dinners and gatherings has led to a structural decline in alcohol consumption, with beer suffering more than soju. The company plans to increase marketing spending in the second half to drive sales recovery, but the effectiveness of these efforts remains to be seen.”
Alphabiz Reporter Paul Lee(hoondork1977@alphabiz.co.kr)
