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(Photo= Yonhap news) |
[Alpha Biz= Reporter Kim Sangjin] Rapidly declining birth rates and an aging population are predicted to exacerbate population decline, with the number of deaths in the Busan area forecasted to be five times higher than births 30 years from now. This disparity is the highest among the eight special and metropolitan cities.
This trend is not unique to Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongsangnam-do but is evident across all cities and provinces nationwide. As a result, the total population of South Korea is expected to fall below 20 million in 100 years.
According to population projections based on the 2022 population census data released by Statistics Korea on the 6th, the number of births in Busan as of 2022 is estimated at 14,000, while the number of deaths is 27,000.
This results in a natural population decrease (where deaths exceed births) of 13,000. The disparity between the two sides is 1.9 times.
The scale of natural population decline due to low birth rates and aging will continue to increase over time. By 2052, the number of births in Busan is projected to decrease by 35.7% to 9,000 compared to 2022, while the number of deaths is expected to increase by 66.7% to 45,000.
As a result, the scale of natural population decline is expected to reach 36,000.
In particular, by 2052, the number of deaths in Busan is expected to be five times higher than births. This disparity is tied with Ulsan for the highest among the eight special and metropolitan cities.
Among the 17 cities and provinces nationwide, Gyeongsangbuk-do is expected to have the highest disparity, with the number of deaths (44,000) exceeding births (7,000) by 6.3 times in 2052. Gyeongsangnam-do's disparity is even higher than Busan and Ulsan at 5.4 times.
Sejong City, the only city among the 17 cities and provinces where births (3,000) outnumber deaths (2,000) in 2022, is projected to experience natural population decline starting in 2045.
As a result, the total population of South Korea is expected to collapse to below 20 million in about 100 years. According to Statistics Korea's "Long-Term Projections by City and Province from 2052 to 2122," the nationwide population is forecasted to be 19.36 million in 2122, according to the median estimate, falling below 20 million.
알파경제 Kim Jisun (stockmk2020@alphabiz.co.kr)
