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Photo = Yonhap news |
[Alpha Biz= Kim Sangjin] Shinhan Investment Securities stated that NCSoft's stock price is unlikely to rise until the launch of Aion 2, as the company has lost investor optimism due to the failure of recent game releases. The firm maintained a "Neutral" rating and did not set a target price.
For Q4 2024, Shinhan projected NCSoft's operating revenue to decline by 7.9% YoY to 403.2 billion KRW, with an operating loss of 99.5 billion KRW, which would fall short of consensus expectations (operating loss of 77.4 billion KRW).
This downturn was attributed to poor performances from the newly launched TL Global and Journey of Monarch, as well as declining revenues and demand for most of the company’s existing titles, except for Lineage M.
Shinhan also pointed out that operating costs included labor expenses from large-scale layoffs in December and marketing costs related to Journey of Monarch. As of January 22, Journey of Monarch was ranked 33rd in revenue, and given its quality and user feedback, Shinhan forecasts that the game's future revenue rebound will be challenging. TL Global also showed limited financial impact, with only 40,000 peak concurrent users on Steam.
The firm expressed a pessimistic outlook on upcoming titles such as Taktan, LLL, and Breakers, and stated that NCSoft's 2026 performance will largely depend on the success of Aion 2. While the company’s strategy of sourcing external titles and investing in studios is seen positively, Shinhan noted that substantial time will be needed before the results are realized.
Alphabiz Reporter Kim SangJin(letyou@alphabiz.co.kr)
